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Regression Model Fitting With Quadratic Term Leads to Different Conclusion in Economic Analysis of Washington State Smoking Ban

Quarter/Year Sales in Millions, $ Linear Quadratic
1/02 96.5 89.2 101.0
2/02 98.7 90.0 98.8
3/02 99.7 90.8 96.7
4/02 95.1 91.6 95.0
1/03 91.1 92.4 93.6
2/03 91.9 93.3 92.5
3/03 93.3 94.1 91.6
4/03 92.6 94.9 91.0
1/04 90.0 95.7 90.7
2/04 92.2 96.5 90.7
3/04 97.1 97.3 90.9
4/04 93.4 98.2 91.5
1/05 91.5 99.0 92.3
2/05 96.6 99.8 93.4
3/05 99.3 100.6 94.8
4/05 96.9 101.4 96.4
1/06 91.8 102.2 98.4
2/06 96.3 103.1 100.6
3/06 99.4 103.9 103.1
4/06 97.6 104.7 105.9
1/07 100.3 105.5 108.9
2/07 114.1 106.3 112.3
3/07 126.0 107.1 115.9
4/07 124.2 108.0 119.8

Figure. Comparison of regression fit to taxable retail sales in bars and taverns in Washington State after the implementation of a smoke-free law, from the first quarter of 2002 (1/02) through the fourth quarter of 2007 (4/07). Values are adjusted for inflation to the Consumer Price Index (www.bls.gov/cpi/). The figure displays 2 regression equations for the quadratic fitting (y = 0.1405x2 - 2.4969x + 103.58, R2 = 0.7811) and the linear fitting (y = 0.8166x + 88.359, R2 = 0.367) .

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Syndicated Content Details:
Source URL: http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2011/jan/10_0213a.htm
Source Agency: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Captured Date: 2016-05-23 21:53:23.0

 

 

 

 

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